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India General Elections 2014: State-Wise Expected Political Alliances for 2014 General Elections

Now that the election schedule for the LS polls has already been declared, a brief review on expected outcome of political alliances in some of the major contributors (LS members wise) is reviewed as under.

Lucknow: Uttar Pradesh will see its own style of electioneering with the 4 major parties everyone contesting independent of others. Present tally shows INC 20, SP 22, BSP 21 & BJP 10 and others for the balance 7 seats. As none of the 4 parties will be able to win all the 80 seats, a combination by way of post poll can’t be ruled out. With the present poll surveys indicating BJP &NDA to come close to magic figure 272 (they are projected to get around 232 as of February surveys), SP as well as BSP may extend outside support to the new BJP/NDA government.

Next largest contributor Maharashtra with 48 seats is again a major playground for local parties i.e., Shiv Sena & NCP of Sharad Pawar. Present Lok Sabha has 9 MPs each from BJP & Shiv Sena whereas there are 14 INC MPs & 7 MPs from NCP. As per the present trend, Shiv Sena is most likely to continue its alliance with NDA and NCP with UPA.

The third largest contributor WB (42 seats) is predominantly influenced by Mamata’s TMC & Communists. Present tally shows communists 17, INC 6, TMC 18 & BJP 1. Mamata, though toying with the idea of third front, may ultimately join NDA. Similarly strategy of Marxists is not yet finalised.

The fourth largest contributor AP (42) though going to polls as single state, comprises of two regions (AP & Telangana). In the united AP, the tally shows INC 33, TDS 6, YSRCP 1, TRS 1 & MIM 1. In the new scenario AP has 27 and Telangana 17 MPs. In Telangana, INC expected that the TRS would merge with it on passing T-Bill. But TRS rejected the merger. The discussions are now on for poll alliance. In AP region, the surveys indicate that Rayalaseema area will be majorly supporting YSRCP whereas coastal region will go with TDP. In both the regions, the after effects of division are going to play a very important role and the outcome of the polls is totally un-predictable.

The fifth largest contributor Bihar (40 seats) is a strong battlefield for Lalu’s RJD and erstwhile NDA partner JDU. With the BJP announcing NaMo as its PM candidate, Bihar CM Nitish severed ties with NDA and the new elections are going to be a fight between BJP & JDU. In the meanwhile, congress is in talks with Lalu for poll alliance.

The pre-poll alliances can’t be predicted at the present moment and clarity will start coming in the days to come.